How Xbox took the next-gen console lead (before a fake game saw PS5 dominate)
In our last insights article analysing Sony and Microsoft’s comparative paths to the launch of their next-gen consoles, we detailed two very different routes - and sets of audience responses - to the start-up of the early hype-train. This time, we pick up the next-gen data story six months later, in March 2020, as both campaigns are gaining momentum.
The initial flurry of console confirmation is over, and the global gaming audience - and industry at large - need something more. They need substance and direction. They need to know exactly what these new consoles can do before they decide where they’re really going to invest. Fulfilling that need is inevitably, eventually, going to demand the delivery of real, tangible gameplay footage. But what’s ready to show, how compelling is it, and how is it going to be presented?
Here’s how it all went down, and what the resulting audience data and social insight told us about who really won the period.
March 2020: The Xbox Series X hardware gets a deep-dive discussion
The window we’ll be discussing today - March to May 2020 - saw an about-face in the rivals’ order of initiative. This time around, Microsoft went first with the news drops, making both of its reveals around a week to 10 days before Sony’s equivalent beats. That was far from the only difference though. During this second stage of hype-building, we started to see the platform holders’ contrasting early strategies really give way to very different personalities. Two distinct outlooks on next-gen console gaming arose, alongside a few safeguard attempts to cover previous bases by aping each other’s earlier strategies.
Confusing? Slightly. But stick with us and we’ll make sense of it.
On March the 16th, Microsoft’s Xbox Series X mouthpiece sounded again, for the first time since December, delivering lengthy tech breakdowns on both its official blog, and via a long-form article created by respected independent gaming tech outlet Digital Foundry, via Eurogamer. Possibly a move to mirror Sony’s initially understated, ‘industry’ focused reveal of the PlayStation 5 (via Wired magazine), the two-hit content combo was a confident, if jargon-heavy, deep-dive into the Xbox Series X’s swaggering (but so far vague) hardware promise.
In-keeping with Microsoft’s customary emphasis on raw horsepower within hardware PR messaging - the outgoing Xbox One X received similar early promotion- the relatively dry, engineer-baiting discussion was nonetheless impressive to those who understood the implications, and Digital Foundry’s accompanying video presentation from Microsoft’s Redwood offices delivered a notable step forward for the overall next-gen campaign, in terms of meaningful, officially-aligned video content.
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And dry or not, it proved a successful move. Over the course of the 72 hours following the news beat, Microsoft had sent a wave of discussion and activity through the industry and home audience, earning 74 pieces of video coverage from native YouTube content creators and 19 from traditional press, and accruing 27.4M and 2.7M views respectively. In terms of audience attention, that makes this the second-biggest beat of the next-gen campaign so far, only narrowly beaten out by Microsoft’s own Xbox Series X hardware trailer in December 2019. Impressive numbers, and a tangible sign of a comeback after a slow and uncertain start to Microsoft’s Series X momentum. but it is worth noting that these stats are boosted by one major outlier.
Of that towering view-count from content creators, 15.6M hits come from a single video by Austin Evans, a video that - while not technically sponsored by Microsoft - does seem to have come about via similar partnership to the one forged with Digital Foundry. Couple in a suite of official promotion for Evans’ video on Xbox social media channels, and the video’s nature as an independent piece of content becomes debatable. Still, with nearly 33K Facebook shares, and cited as a source in 1310 news articles from the period, it can’t be argued that organic interest wasn’t there. Ultimately that makes it a smart, audience-minded move from Microsoft to partner with a technically-minded YouTube personality in tandem with an established ‘trad media’ voice.
Impressive power heats up the Xbox conversation, but real games are required
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Subject matter in videos from content creators and press alike focused heavily on the hardware’s specifications and technical abilities, the hands-on nature of the impressions content, the console’s controller, and the vastly improved loading times afforded by the new hardware - gamers, as always, focusing in on the real, practical, quality-of-life experiential changes amid an ocean of technical detail. Editorial angles were dominated by favourable comparisons of the new Xbox’s power to that of a modern gaming PC, with Microsoft’s huge, ongoing dedication to backward compatibility remaining another consistent source of praise.
Down below the line in the comments section, the tone of consumer conversation around this period also improved, with social listening analysis indicating that the existing tentative, hopeful, and optimistic tone was joined by new notes of impressed confidence. It should be noted though, that just as Microsoft earned praise for the improved technical performance of last-gen games demoed on the new hardware, it began to draw ire for demoing last-gen games in the first place. Particularly, the traditionally important matter of next-gen console exclusives was starting to become a notable and specific subject of conversation. Expectation of impressive new games content was becoming louder, and lo, a major sticking point of this period - for both consoles - began to set in.
May 2020: Xbox Series X lets the games begin. Sort of
Then, two months later, the games appeared. Or at least, some games appeared. Although neither platform-holder seemed ready to drop the hotly awaited reveal of their main next-gen games line-up, on the 7th of May, Microsoft edged ahead of Sony with a streamed showcase of third-party titles confirmed for release on Xbox Series X.
Although the show featured some major, perennial third-party franchises (thus making the Series X feel more like a real, tangible proposition, with recognisable value), only two games from the whole roster - indie horrors Scorn and The Medium - were actually confirmed as platform exclusives. Major Xbox system-sellers such as Halo and Gears of War were entirely absent, and while the third-party focus of the show was deliberately flagged from the very start, the combined effect of second-tier titles with limited next-gen sparkle gave the show a placeholder feel. A debatably valuable effect to drape around a new games console’s first real showing.
Xbox Series X’s first games feel like too little, too early
In fact, let’s not debate it. Let’s look at the data instead. Of the 101 content creator videos made around the period (average views: 107,920), the most frequent angles and subject matter were reactions tinged with criticism, chiefly at the amount of pre-rendered CG and ‘representative’ footage on show, with Microsoft’s apparently differing definition of “gameplay” proving a point of considerable friction. In videos from traditional media, faith in Xbox CEO Phil Spencer’s leadership was tempered by an expectation of more, and a continued sense of ‘I’ll believe it when I see it’, potentially stemming from the abundance of pre-rendered non-realtime content.
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It’s also worth noting that although the game reveal period earned a 36% increase in content creator video responses over March’s technical deep-dive (101 as opposed to 74, likely thanks to the sheer volume of in-game video content available to work with), it also gained considerably less total views, dropping from 27.4M to 10.6M. That’s a hefty deficit, to the tune of 61%, and while it could be partially explained by the lack of a break-out video like Austin Evans’ March partnership, the fact is that the organic interest that drove such outlying success two months earlier simply didn’t seem apparent in May. It’s also possible that, being a livestreamed reveal rather than an editorial article drop, the instant negative responses to the live event poisoned the well in terms of follow-up video responses.
And if the numbers were disheartening, then the audience conversation was disastrous. Looking into a social listening appraisal of the community discussion resulting from the event, there isn’t a positive tonal note present, March’s tentative positivity replaced by disappointment, anger, discouragement, frustration, sadness, and an overall critical air. Chief points of chagrin focus around the lack of exclusives, the proliferation of what were perceived to be ‘old games’, the lack of ‘true next-gen’ games, and a sense that Microsoft was misleading its audience with its promises. There was an appreciation that Microsoft was - so far - putting out more information than Sony, but with that information proving underwhelming and undesirable, there was also a pervading sense that the platform-holder was already losing the momentum it had built. Ironic then, that the very games content the audience earlier craved apparently proved to be a sizable turn-off upon arrival.
But then, these lower-key third-party titles weren’t the actual games people were craving at all. It’s understandable that Microsoft might want to take the initiative during this second wave of next-gen activity - especially hot on the heels of its successful winter 2019 showing. But in videogames - and particularly new console launches - showing a hand early isn’t always the best move, if there’s any uncertainty that it’s absolutely packed with aces. It remained to be seen what long-lasting damage this incident might do to the burgeoning enthusiasm around Series X. And this wouldn’t be the only reversal of fortunes we saw in spring 2020…
March and April 2020: The PS5 gets technical. Very technical
Sony’s spring activities started in relatively similar fashion to their rival’s, with a lengthy Digital Foundry article - and video piece - of their own, staggered over the 29th of March and 2nd of April. This followed Sony’s more developer-targeting tech presentation of March the 18th, a delayed version of a talk originally intended for 2020’s Game Developers’ Conference, cancelled this year due to Covid-19.
Another Digital Foundry breakdown meant another barrage of numbers, acronyms, and miscellaneous computer science terminology, but the nuts-and-bolts reality of the PS5 was now really starting to reach the consumer. Now it just needed games.
No, really, it absolutely did. Because the climate seemed to have changed since Sony’s last bout of tech-talk. Perhaps Microsoft’s own hardware discussion just two weeks earlier had burned people out on specs and computing jargon. Perhaps the PlayStation audience - so long accustomed to Sony being ‘the fun one’, more focused on games, community, and experiences than horsepower and number-crunching - had lost patience waiting for that conversation. But whatever the reasons, the backlash was loaded and ready to fire.
Tech-talk subdues the conversation, and the need to see PlayStation 5 games become a burning issue
Even doubling the studied coverage period by an extra 72 hours, to take into account the staggered period of news beats between the 29th and the 2nd, Sony’s haul didn’t come close to its previous successes. The combined 27.2M video views (from 100 videos) garnered by the PlayStation 5’s second Wired preview article back in October 2019 fell to 6.5M (from 53). A notable part of that shortfall comes from the lack of traditional press video, with only one significant traditional media outlet dedicating a piece of content to the story. Though it’s probable that this side of the media covered the story more extensively in written formats, due to the complexity of the subject matter.
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In terms of the key discussion points of videos released, it’s also worth noting that very little YouTube content from native content creators focused on the actual subject matter at hand, instead dwelling on how ‘boring’ Sony’s not-GDC presentation had been deemed to be - perhaps unfairly, given that the material wasn’t written for a consumer audience. After this, content subjects segued into discussion of rumoured (and so far still unfounded) development problems and release delays, and the now-ubiquitous demands for compelling new game content. The hardware horsepower honeymoon, it seems, was over. People wanted to see the fresh, exciting, innovative in-game experiences they were used to, and they weren’t going to be quiet about that demand.
Indeed, looking at the audience conversation of the period, the tentative tone of positivity and hope from late 2019 became tinged with an atmosphere of frustration, given that the only thing that Sony’s continuing drip-feed strategy had delivered beyond more tech-chat was a look at the PlayStation 5’s new DualSense controller. Opinion on that was split, with many commenters praising the “slick” futuristic, white and neon-blue design, while others expressed concern about the “impractical” colour and unconventional form-factor.
But then, with so little else of experiential substance to grasp on to amid the swamp of continued tech detail, it’s entirely understandable that the increasingly fun-starved gaming audience would dwell so heavily on the only practical element shown of the consumer PS5 reality. The messaging, it seemed, needed to change.
But it was about to. As was a lot more besides.
May 2020: We see the first real PlayStation 5 game. But it isn’t actually a real PlayStation 5 game
Sony’s means of affecting that change? A deft juggling act between the understated confidence exhibited at the PlayStation 5’s announcement, and some incendiary next-gen spectacle. Just five days after Microsoft’s underwhelming, dourly-received games reveal, May the 13th saw the reveal video for Fortnite-creator Epic Games’ still-in-development, future-specced new game engine, Unreal 5.
As a tech demo intended to pave the way for the future of game design - and, naturally, game technology licensing - the exhibited content was designed specifically with ground-breaking, medium-changing visual splendour in mind. And it was also the world’s first view of in-game PS5 gameplay, as quietly indicated with a simple “Running on PlayStation 5” note in the title of the video.
A low-key and economical way of showing the world what Sony’s next-gen machine is capable of, and one that - while lacking the volume of ‘real’ games seen in Microsoft’s May presentation - shouted with a whisper, while allowing a prestigious third-party partner do all the talking.
The result? One of the most dramatic turnarounds of the campaign so far, winning easily the most enthusiastic response of any single next-gen news beat from this six-month period. The 142 content creator videos produced present an astronomical contrast from the mere 52 delivered in support of Sony’s March/April tech dive. The response can also be seen as a very potent implication that we were, by this point, very much beyond the stage where theoretical talk was going to keep potential consumers happy any longer.
Games are an inherently experiential, visual medium, and in a world where games marketing can often seek to obfuscate, distract from, or embellish the in-game realities of the pastime, ‘true’ game content is prized higher than anything else. And after months wandering a next-gen desert devoid of meaningful landmarks, the game-parched consumer had finally had the floodgates opened. Sony had built expectation - perhaps for too long - but when it came to delivering, it had executed far more effectively than its rival had.
A ‘fake’ game achieves real (and dominant) audience interest
The audience response only confirms that notion. Not only did YouTube content creator material spawned from the PS5 tech demo deliver five times the views of the Digital Foundry collaboration (at a rate of 31.2M views vs. 6.2M), but the 9.2M views generated by traditional media channels absolutely buried the 274K provided by April’s single video. In fact, Sony’s 40.9M total views for this beat gave it comfortably the most successful response to any key moment of the entire next-gen campaign so far - for either participant. Pictures, it seems, are worth considerably more than a thousand words.
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As for the community conversation? The mood matched the numbers. With content creator output praising the ‘unbelievable visual quality’ of the demo, and YouTubers and press alike exalting the arresting real-time lighting effects seen in the footage, the feeling all over was that Sony had delivered on high expectations. Words like “revolutionary”, “impressive”, and “amazing” were thrown around with frequency, and despite some of the understandable scepticism that comes attached to any purpose-built tech demo, excitement was again high.
By now, the next-gen console Cold War was starting to smoulder, and the two platforms’ personalities and approaches were cemented. Microsoft was doubling down on the loud promise of market-leading horsepower, albeit without yet delivering anything to really exemplify the scope of its supposedly superior hardware. Nor was much of a case really being made for the kind of exclusive, Xbox-only experiences that would usually be expected to fuel a next-gen console hype period.
Sony continued to steer its ship with quiet, market-leader swagger, delivering the dream of the PS5 gameplay experience with the soft mic-drop of a single third-party tech demo - one designed to capture imaginations with the visual potential of next-gen PlayStation gaming, without actually showing off a real next-gen PlayStation game. But it was enough to whet appetites. Convincingly so.
Given this period’s successes, and the learnings made about the audience’s evolving moods and demands, the next stage of the campaign surely had to be a full-blown, first-party games reveal from both platform-holders.
And it was, beginning just a month later. But we’ll talk about how that went in the next article.
Appendix
What data did we use, and how did we choose it?
For the purposes of this study, we defined our data sources as follows:
All YouTube video sources had to be unofficial channels (that is, not run by either PlayStation or Xbox), and sponsored content would not be included.
YouTube content creator channels had to meet a minimum criteria of 20,000 subscribers in order to be surveyed.
YouTube channels run by traditional media outlets had to meet a minimum criteria of 20,000 subscribers in order to be surveyed.
To be counted as a video response to a PlayStation 5 or Xbox Series X news beat, a video had to focus primarily on the individual console at hand, and not discuss its rival.
PlayStation 5 content was defined using the terms “PS5”, and “PlayStation 5”. “PlayStation” alone was excluded in order to refine content accuracy.
“Xbox Scarlett” and “Project Scarlett” were used to accrue data for the June 2019 period, before “Xbox Series X” was adopted as the dominant search term from December 2019 onward.
For ‘neutral’ social listening, we drew audience conversation data from the YouTube channels of four specifically chosen, prominent, global multiformat videogames and tech media brands - IGN, GameSpot, GamesRadar, and Digital Foundry - in order to minimise the effect of audience bias.
As for the tools we used, video volume, audience, and engagement detail was drawn by Fourth Floor’s Insight team, using our access to Tubular Labs technology. All social listening and conversational tone analysis was performed using a combination of Fourth Floor’s own in-house technology and IBM’s Watson tone analyser.